Dan Hull, Chairman
David Witherell, Executive Director
SUBJECT: title
Kuskokwim River model review for three-river index - Report
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STAFF CONTACT: Diana Stram (NPFMC)
ACTION REQUIRED: recommended action
* Review model; action as necessary
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BACKGROUND:
Amendment 110, implemented in July 2016, modified the Chinook and chum salmon bycatch avoidance program in the Bering Sea pollock fishery. In addition to other measures, this amendment identified additional management actions that would be taken when a three-river index of Western Alaska inriver run abundance (Unalakleet River, Upper Yukon River, and Kuskokwim River) falls below a 250,000 Chinook salmon threshold, based on the State of Alaska's post-season inriver Chinook salmon run size assessment.
Since 2015, ADF&G has generated postseason abundance estimates for the three rivers that comprise the index using methods consistent with the analysis for Amendment 110. This year, ADF&G is recommending changes to the data and model used to estimate total inriver abundance of Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon. Kuskokwim River run reconstruction model changes were developed, in part, to address changing harvest patterns when significant harvest restrictions were implemented. Between 2014 and 2017, annual Chinook salmon harvest in the Kuskokwim River was among the lowest on record in this river. The previous model overestimated the total Chinook salmon runs in those years.
Following final action on Amendment 110, during responses to proposed and final rulemaking by NMFS, it was understood that NMFS and the State would work with the Council to ensure that any modifications to the methods used by ADF&G to generate the post-season estimates would be reviewed and approved by the SSC before they would be used by the Council in the Three System Index that determines salmon bycatch management for the BS pollock fishery. This is consistent with the Council process; whereby new assessment models are reviewed by the ...
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